OAK vs CWS prediction for July 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 5.6 - OAK 3.1. CWS is favored with a 63.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
CWS
5.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
OAK
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSOAK
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.1% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
135
CWS
468
Projected
CWS 5.6 — OAK 3.1
Actual
CWS 1 — OAK 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gage Jump L
OAK
FF48%96 mph17% whiff
SL25%87 mph25% whiff
CU12%83 mph24% whiff
Bryan Hudson L
CWS
FF67%92 mph21% whiff
ST25%81 mph23% whiff
SI6%90 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Guaranteed Rate Field
77°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.080 Total: 1.043
thin air, 8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.87ERA
3.91FIP
9.81K/9
4.20BB/9
1.44WHIP
CWS
4.29ERA
4.67FIP
8.64K/9
4.97BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-46.6% EV
+155
F5_ML AWAY
-41.5% EV
-123
F5_ML HOME
+35.4% EV
+100
ML AWAY
-19.0% EV
-104
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-14.2% EV
-118
ML HOME
+10.9% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
1.5 runs
22.1% win
CWS F5
3.3 runs
64.4% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
49.6%
YRFI
50.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.11
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Miguel Vargas CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.352 | Barrel: 9.3% | vs Gage Jump | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Colson Montgomery CWS29.6%
ISO: 0.285 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Gage Jump | Park: 1.01x
Munetaka Murakami CWS19.4%
ISO: 0.078 | Barrel: 7.8% | vs Gage Jump | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gage Jump
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Bryan Hudson
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK7 injured
Nick Kurtz 1B10-DAY-IL
Zack Gelof 3B10-DAY-IL
Brent Rooker DH10-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
Brooks Kriske RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE57.5% WR (n=8)
While Bryan Hudson's 2.43 ERA is genuinely elite vs untested Gage Jump, the +10.9% ML edge on a favorite in the 55-60% probability zone historically produces 0% wins in 60-65% zones — high edges on chalk are statistical traps; F5 ML is much cleaner.
Key Factors
- Pitcher dominance: Hudson 2.43 ERA (B grade, elite command 0.722) vs Jump (untested, no comp)
- High-edge trap: ML edge 10.9% on favorite — recent 60-65% prob zone: 0-8 record (0% WR) — calibration failure pattern
- F5 edge massive: +35.4% (model 67.7% vs market 32.3%) — different market microstructure, much cleaner signal
- Home field advantage: Guaranteed Rate Field neutral (1.0 factor)
- Wind assist: 8 mph out increases HR probability (+4.3% run mult)
Risk Factors
- Recent performance: Bets with 10%+ edges on favorites correlate with overconfidence — model may be wrong on Hudson's dominance
- Market efficiency: Line at -112 may reflect sharp consensus better than our model
- Jump unknown: Could outperform expectation if recent prospect performance strong
HIGH EDGE WARNINGPITCHER MISMATCHMODEL MARKET CONFLICT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 63.7%
-2.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-2.3 pts
Total
8.5
+5.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →