BAL vs HOU prediction for July 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 5.7 - BAL 5.4. HOU is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.0 total runs.
HOU
5.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
BAL
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUBAL
+1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.4% (2,889 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
357
HOU
468
Projected
HOU 5.7 — BAL 5.4
Actual
HOU 2 — BAL 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Young R
BAL
FF41%94 mph18% whiff
FS20%85 mph21% whiff
SL14%84 mph42% whiff
Hunter Brown R
HOU
FF33%96 mph20% whiff
SI28%96 mph12% whiff
KC20%83 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Daikin Park
89°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.018 Total: 1.008
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.34ERA
4.01FIP
8.76K/9
3.44BB/9
1.30WHIP
HOU
4.13ERA
4.29FIP
8.50K/9
4.68BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-30.5% EV
-114
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-29.4% EV
-208
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+22.3% EV
-106
F5 OVER 4.5
+12.0% EV
-114
F5_ML HOME
-7.9% EV
-128
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-5.8% EV
+172
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
3.0 runs
42.7% win
HOU F5
3.1 runs
44.8% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
48.3%
YRFI
51.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.24
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Brandon Young | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Alonso BAL27.2%
ISO: 0.250 | Barrel: 18.9% | vs Hunter Brown | Park: 0.99x
Samuel Basallo BAL25.5%
ISO: 0.260 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Hunter Brown | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Brandon Young
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Hunter Brown
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Chris Bassitt SP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Keegan Akin RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP15-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU8 injured
Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL
Jeremy Pena SSDAY-TO-DAY
Christian Walker 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Brice Matthews CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Bennett Sousa RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Game completed (HOU won 5-2). Model 53.5% HOU home at -3.3% ML edge MISSED direction entirely. Model favored home, but BAL's Brandon Young (C+, 3.69 ERA, weaker stuff) was underestimated vs Hunter Brown (B-, 3.86 ERA, better arsenal but higher BB rate 14.4%). Actually: HOU came through despite weaker SP because BAL lineup struggled against Brown's sinker/fastball combo. Model error: Overrated Brandon Young's ERA relative to Brown's stuff. Market correctly had HOU -123 (55.2%) vs model 53.4% — market was right.
Key Factors
- Brandon Young (BAL away): 3.69 ERA, 18.1% K-rate, 8.5% BB — mediocre stuff, below-average strikeout rate
- Hunter Brown (HOU home): 3.86 ERA, 25.9% K-rate, 14.4% BB — better strikeout stuff but high walk rate
- Weather Houston: 89.0F, roof retractable closed = neutral conditions, park factor 1.0 = no boost
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU DH): 30% HR prob vs weak BAL pitching = home-team power advantage
Risk Factors
- Game complete, not actionable
- Model's small -3.3% edge on HOU lost to market pricing
GAME FINALMODEL DIRECTION WRONGMARKET WAS SHARPER
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 53.5%
-29.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-29.4 pts
Total
8.5
+22.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →