FINAL: TOR 0 — CWS 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TOR 4.7 - CWS 5.2 (CWS at 50.3% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
TOR
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CWS
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORCWS
+1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CWSTOR L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.8% (2,889 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
357
TOR
357
Projected
TOR 4.7 — CWS 5.2
Actual
TOR 0 — CWS 3
Pick Results
CWS @ TOR YRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sean Burke R
CWS
FF38%95 mph22% whiff
KC21%80 mph24% whiff
SL17%87 mph31% whiff
Trey Yesavage R
TOR
FF46%94 mph16% whiff
FS30%83 mph40% whiff
SL25%88 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
69°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.985 Total: 0.989
7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.29ERA
4.67FIP
8.64K/9
4.97BB/9
1.34WHIP
TOR
3.92ERA
3.64FIP
9.10K/9
3.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-33.4% EV
-164
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-21.3% EV
-123
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+14.2% EV
+102
F5_ML AWAY
-7.8% EV
-135
F5 OVER 4.5
+6.3% EV
-102
ML AWAY
-6.3% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.8 runs
45.2% win
TOR F5
2.6 runs
41.1% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
54.2%
YRFI
45.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.01
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
82%
Over 1.5 HR
52%
No HR
18%
Kazuma Okamoto TOR24.2%
ISO: 0.087 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Sean Burke | Park: 1.01x
Colson Montgomery CWS22.7%
ISO: 0.144 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Trey Yesavage | Park: 1.01x
Kyle Teel CWS17.4%
ISO: 0.096 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Trey Yesavage | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Sean Burke
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Trey Yesavage
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
TOR8 injured
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Jesus Sanchez RF10-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Game completed (CWS won 3-0). Model projected 9.83 runs; actual 3 runs total — massive under-hit. Analysis: Yesavage (C+, 4.02 ERA) vs Burke (B, 3.68 ERA) was close-enough matchup; TOR's retractable roof closed + 68.7F suppressed offense more than model accounted for.
Key Factors
- Burke vs Yesavage: 3.68 vs 4.02 ERA (minimal 0.34 gap) — not a mismatch; both sub-4 ERA
- Rogers Centre retractable roof closed + 68.7F = -7 mph headwind suppresses ball flight (HR mult 0.985, total mult 0.989)
- Actual result: 3 runs total vs model 9.83 (MASSIVE under). CWS quality pitching + environment = shutout strength
Risk Factors
- Game complete, not actionable
- Model overestimated total by 6.83 runs despite reasonable input data
GAME FINALMODEL OVERESTIMATE TOTALDOME CLOSED SUPPRESSION
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 50.3%
-33.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-33.4 pts
Total
8.5
+14.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →