NYM vs PHI prediction for July 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 5.7 - NYM 4.7. PHI is favored with a 56.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
PHI
5.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYM
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHINYM
+1.5
Run Line (PHI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.3% (2,889 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
357
PHI
468
Projected
PHI 5.7 — NYM 4.7
Actual
PHI 1 — NYM 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nolan McLean R
NYM
SI34%95 mph14% whiff
FF20%96 mph24% whiff
ST16%85 mph22% whiff
Alan Rangel R
PHI
FF36%93 mph9% whiff
CH34%81 mph39% whiff
SL17%84 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
83°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.017 Total: 1.007
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
3.44ERA
3.69FIP
9.32K/9
3.58BB/9
1.21WHIP
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-25.5% EV
+125
F5_ML AWAY
-23.4% EV
-159
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-22.7% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
+19.8% EV
+126
ML AWAY
-15.9% EV
-133
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-15.9% EV
-149
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.7 runs
37.8% win
PHI F5
3.3 runs
49.8% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
45.8%
YRFI
54.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.27
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
61%
No HR
13%
Juan Soto NYM30.0%
ISO: 0.287 | Barrel: 18.1% | vs Alan Rangel | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.319 | Barrel: 20.8% | vs Nolan McLean | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Jared Young NYM27.0%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Alan Rangel | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Nolan McLean
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Alan Rangel
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM8 injured
Luis Robert Jr. CF60-DAY-IL
Clay Holmes SP60-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Dedniel Nunez RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI5 injured
Brad Keller RP15-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP15-DAY-IL
Lou Trivino RP15-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Game completed (NYM won 6-1). Model 56.4% PHI home at +11.1% ML edge proved WRONG — away value crushed. Model favored PHI despite McLean (away SP) showing B-grade, 10.4 K% matchup vs Rangel (B-, 15.0 K% but 0.446 overall). The edge was on PHI +114 odds but model prob 51.9% implies -3.9% vs market, meaning market was slightly sharper. NY's Juan Soto (30% HR prob, elite contact) and deeper lineup exploited PHI pitcher Rangel (who walks 10.6% rate). No excuse for missing this: it was a close call pre-game.
Key Factors
- McLean away SP: 0.541 overall, 27.8% K-rate, 8.7% BB — solid but not dominant
- Rangel home SP: 0.446 overall, 25.9% K-rate, 10.6% BB — weaker command, higher walk rate
- Juan Soto (NYM OF): 30% HR prob, 0.287 ISO — lineup quality edge NYM > PHI despite home-field advantage
- Weather: 82.9F neutral, slight wind in at -2.9 mph = negligible weather impact
Risk Factors
- Game complete, not actionable
- Model edge 11.1% on PHI home is exactly the problem zone (high edges = poor WR)
GAME FINALHIGH EDGE WARNINGMODEL DIRECTION WRONGAWAY TEAM SUCCESS
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 56.4%
-15.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-15.9 pts
Total
8.5
+11.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →