TB vs BOS prediction for July 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 6.6 - TB 6.8. BOS is favored with a 50.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 13.3 total runs.
BOS
6.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
TB
6.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSTB
+1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.8% (2,889 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
579
BOS
579
Projected
BOS 6.6 — TB 6.8
Actual
BOS 6 — TB 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shane McClanahan L
TB
FF38%96 mph15% whiff
CH29%87 mph36% whiff
SL19%88 mph28% whiff
Sonny Gray R
BOS
FC20%88 mph13% whiff
SI20%92 mph13% whiff
ST20%85 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
80°F14 mph wind
HR: 1.052 Total: 1.028
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TB
4.35ERA
4.16FIP
8.55K/9
3.50BB/9
1.33WHIP
BOS
3.90ERA
4.18FIP
9.00K/9
3.45BB/9
1.30WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-49.5% EV
-114
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+41.9% EV
-106
F5 OVER 4.5
+35.7% EV
+102
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-33.4% EV
-213
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+9.7% EV
+176
NRFI YRFI
+8.9% EV
+112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
3.7 runs
44.0% win
BOS F5
3.7 runs
45.7% win
F5 Total
7.4
NRFI
45.0%
YRFI
55.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.42
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
6%
Junior Caminero TB30.0%
ISO: 0.227 | Barrel: 14.0% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 1.08x
Willson Contreras BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.322 | Barrel: 13.8% | vs Shane McClanahan | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Jonathan Aranda TB25.9%
ISO: 0.228 | Barrel: 12.8% | vs Sonny Gray | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Shane McClanahan
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Sonny Gray
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL
Steven Wilson RP60-DAY-IL
Jesse Scholtens RP15-DAY-IL
Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Johan Oviedo SP60-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B10-DAY-IL
Connelly Early SP15-DAY-IL
Ranger Suarez SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Game completed (BOS won 6-1). Model 73.1% OVER 8.5 at +41.9% edge was MASSIVELY overconfident. Actual 7 runs total — UNDER crushed. Despite Sonny Gray (2.74 ERA, elite) vs McClanahan (B-, 0.522 overall), BOS bullpen (2.18 ERA, elite ATL-like quality) choked off TB completely. Gray's 3.8 K mean (vs McClanahan 4.7) suggested lower-K affair, but model overweighted park factor (1.08 Fenway, +1.028 runs) and weather. 79.9F + 14.4 mph wind (tail direction 4.2 mph) = slight push-out effect, not massive.
Key Factors
- Sonny Gray: 2.74 Bayesian ERA, 0.232 K-rate (elite strikeout but low BB 5.9%), 0.614 command score — perfectly positioned for low-scoring games
- McClanahan: 0.522 overall score, B- stuff, but Gray clearly superior (2.74 ERA vs McClanahan's N/A but recent context shows Gray > McClanahan command)
- Fenway park factor 1.08 multiplied by +1.028 weather = +1.096 total uplift, but actual tight pitcher's duel kept total at 7 runs
- BOS bullpen 2.18 ERA (2nd best in MLB) vs TB lineup = mismatch favoring under
Risk Factors
- Game complete, not actionable
- Model's 73.1% OVER (41.9% edge) in RED zone — cautionary tale on high-edge overconfidence
GAME FINALHIGH EDGE FAILURERED ZONE TOTALPITCHER ELITE ERA MISMATCH
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 50.2%
-33.4 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-33.4 pts
Total
8.5
+41.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →