FINAL: KC 2 — SD 19. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected KC 5.1 - SD 5.8 (SD at 52.1% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 10.9 total runs.
KC
5.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
SD
5.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCSD
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.7% (2,889 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
468
KC
357
Projected
KC 5.1 — SD 5.8
Actual
KC 2 — SD 19
Pick Results
SD @ KC NRFInrfiLOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Germán Márquez R
SD
FF38%95 mph11% whiff
KC37%85 mph32% whiff
SI12%94 mph7% whiff
Noah Cameron L
KC
FF28%92 mph13% whiff
CH21%81 mph32% whiff
FC20%90 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
95°F1 mph wind
HR: 1.054 Total: 1.027
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.15ERA
3.66FIP
8.41K/9
3.44BB/9
1.23WHIP
KC
4.34ERA
5.00FIP
8.61K/9
4.51BB/9
1.45WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-37.9% EV
-189
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-16.6% EV
-105
F5_ML HOME
-12.0% EV
-128
ML HOME
-8.2% EV
-116
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+7.1% EV
-115
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+5.9% EV
+155
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
3.3 runs
45.4% win
KC F5
3.1 runs
42.2% win
F5 Total
6.4
NRFI
44.2%
YRFI
55.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.34
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.1
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
80%
No HR
5%
Jac Caglianone KC30.0%
ISO: 0.164 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Germán Márquez | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Carter Jensen KC29.1%
ISO: 0.197 | Barrel: 20.8% | vs Germán Márquez | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Luis Campusano SD29.1%
ISO: 0.090 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs Noah Cameron | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Germán Márquez
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Noah Cameron
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Randy Vasquez SP15-DAY-IL
David Morgan RP15-DAY-IL
Wandy Peralta RPBEREAVEMENT
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP15-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
KC8 injured
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Isbel CF10-DAY-IL
Stephen Kolek SPBEREAVEMENT
Nick Mears RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Game completed (SD won 19-2, MASSIVE blowout). Model 52.1% SD away at +0.3% ML edge MASSIVELY UNDERESTIMATED away value. German Marquez (C+, 3.85 overall, 5.9% K-rate) vs Noah Cameron (B-, 5.28 ERA) was a legitimate SP mismatch. SD's lineup (Ty France 2 HR, grand slam; Jackson Merrill 2 HR) exploited Cameron's weakness catastrophically. Model failed to recognize: (1) Noah Cameron's 5.28 ERA = back-end starter quality despite B- grade, (2) SD's power-hitting advantage, (3) Kauffman Stadium's 95.3F + thin air (mult 1.027) inflates home-run probability. Massive model miss.
Key Factors
- German Marquez (SD away): C+, 3.85 overall, 5.9% K-rate — weak K rate but solid ERA control
- Noah Cameron (KC home): B-, 5.28 ERA, 21.5% K-rate — massive ERA gap (+1.43) indicates back-end starter struggling
- Weather Kauffman: 95.3F (hottest of day), 1.054 HR multiplier + 1.027 total runs = massive run inflation
- Ty France (SD): 2 HR + grand slam; Merrill (SD): 2 HR — lineup explosive vs weak home pitching
Risk Factors
- Game complete, not actionable
- Model's +0.3% edge (margin of error) on winning side = lucky directional call, not skill
GAME FINALMASSIVE AWAY BLOWOUTMODEL UNDERESTIMATED SP GAPWEATHER INFLATED POWER
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 52.1%
-37.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-37.9 pts
Total
9.5
+7.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →