FINAL: NYY 2 — LAD 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYY 5.0 - LAD 6.1 (LAD at 54.2% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.0 total runs.
NYY
5.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAD
6.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYLAD
+1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
LAD L5NYY
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.4% (2,889 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
468
NYY
357
Projected
NYY 5.0 — LAD 6.1
Actual
NYY 2 — LAD 1
Pick Results
LAD F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R
LAD
FS27%91 mph31% whiff
FF26%96 mph23% whiff
CU14%77 mph24% whiff
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
FF44%98 mph29% whiff
FC27%94 mph18% whiff
SI20%98 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
79°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.048 Total: 1.026
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.58ERA
3.45FIP
10.00K/9
3.64BB/9
1.19WHIP
NYY
3.36ERA
3.71FIP
8.80K/9
3.56BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-41.1% EV
-172
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-29.3% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
-22.0% EV
-112
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+17.7% EV
-122
F5_ML AWAY
+11.0% EV
-112
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+10.3% EV
+142
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
3.5 runs
54.4% win
NYY F5
2.6 runs
33.8% win
F5 Total
6.1
NRFI
45.2%
YRFI
54.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.30
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
67%
No HR
10%
Shohei Ohtani LAD30.0%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 23.4% | vs Cam Schlittler | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.347 | Barrel: 15.4% | vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Max Muncy LAD25.9%
ISO: 0.262 | Barrel: 10.1% | vs Cam Schlittler | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
0.0 K projected
LAD | K/9: 0.0
Cam Schlittler
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Will Smith C10-DAY-IL
Enrique Hernandez 1B10-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP60-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Treinen RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY5 injured
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1RED ZONE0.4% WR (n=37)
LATE GAME (11:20 PM start, IN PROGRESS at submission). Model 64.6% OVER 8.5 at +17.7% edge. Market priced BOS @ CLE style tightness (both -104/-112 near parity), but Yamamoto (B, elite command 0.676) vs Schlittler (B, solid 0.723 command) suggests tight first 5 innings. OVER edge driven by: (1) Yankee Stadium +1.1 park factor inflates HRs, (2) 79.4F + light wind (3.9 mph tailwind) = favorable conditions, (3) LAD elite lineup (Ohtani 30% HR prob, Muncy 25.9%) vs NYY solid defense. Model correctly sees this as high-scoring affair.
Key Factors
- Park factor Yankee Stadium: 1.1 multiplier on HRs + 1.026 total runs — inflates expected total 0.5-0.8 runs vs neutral park
- SP matchup: Yamamoto (0.676 command score) > Schlittler (0.723) but nearly equal arsenals. Yamamoto K-rate 25.6%, Schlittler 28.4% — strikeout upside for both
- Weather: 79.4F with 3.9 mph tailwind = neutral-to-favorable; not suppressive like TOR dome
- F5 OVER 4.5: Model 61.4% (+8.1% edge) — accessible cleanest play before full game develops
Risk Factors
- High-edge total bets (>15%) historically show model overconfidence (edge>20% zone RED, 38-42% WR)
- Both teams coming off long days (LAD finished AM game at 8-2 win, NYY finished AM at 2-8 loss) — possible fatigue effect on evening contest
- Model 64.6% OVER is just under the 65% prob ceiling I recommend for high-edge caution
LATE GAMEPARK FACTOR POSITIVEHIGH EDGE WARNINGF5 EDGE AVAILABLETOTALS VALUE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
LAD 54.2%
-41.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-41.1 pts
Total
8.5
+17.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →