FINAL: TEX 2 — BAL 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TEX 4.3 - BAL 4.1 (TEX at 52.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
TEX
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BAL
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXBAL
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
BALTEX L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.7% (3,199 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
246
TEX
246
Projected
TEX 4.3 — BAL 4.1
Actual
TEX 2 — BAL 1
Pick Results
BAL @ TEX NRFInrfiWIN+0.80u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Bradish R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI34%95 mph9% whiff
SL26%87 mph33% whiff
CU22%85 mph40% whiff
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%97 mph23% whiff
SL36%91 mph36% whiff
CH13%90 mph42% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
99°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.075 Total: 1.039
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.33ERA
4.00FIP
8.59K/9
3.74BB/9
1.33WHIP
TEX
4.39ERA
4.39FIP
8.34K/9
3.65BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML HOME
-11.3% EV
-149
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-8.3% EV
-118
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-6.2% EV
+146
ML HOME
-5.1% EV
-139
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-3.5% EV
-179
F5_ML AWAY
+3.1% EV
+120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.2 runs
40.3% win
TEX F5
2.4 runs
43.3% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
59.5%
YRFI
40.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.3
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
66%
No HR
10%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Bradish
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Jacob deGrom
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Samuel Basallo C10-DAY-IL
Chris Bassitt SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Jack Leiter SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
MacKenzie Gore SPPATERNITY
Jakob Junis RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Corniell RP60-DAY-IL
Danny Jansen C60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Despite very hot weather at Globe Life Field suggesting an over lean on paper, the model's own probability-weighted total edge is negligible (-1.1%), so the raw run-total gap is not a reliable signal to act on.
Key Factors
- deGrom (home) 4.28 ERA and Bradish (away) 4.09 ERA are essentially even - Bradish technically the better arm currently
- Model_total (8.43) is nearly a full run above market_total (7.5), driven by Globe Life Field hitting 98.7F with thin air (density altitude 2773) and a 3.5mph tailwind - but the computed OVER edge_pct is only -1.1%, meaning the raw probability distribution doesn't support a clean bet despite the mean gap
- ML edges are trivial in both directions (2.1% away, -5.1% home)
- No NRFI edge listed in top signals for this game - market appears efficient here
Risk Factors
- The gap between raw model_total and market_total (0.93 runs) looks tempting but the model's own probability-based edge_pct is near zero - trust the probability calc over the raw mean when they disagree
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TEX 52.3%
-6.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-6.2 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.