FINAL: PIT 4 — NYM 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PIT 4.4 - NYM 3.2 (PIT at 60.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
PIT
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYM
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITNYM
-1.5
Run Line (PIT)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYMPIT L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.2% (3,199 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
135
PIT
246
Projected
PIT 4.4 — NYM 3.2
Actual
PIT 4 — NYM 6
Pick Results
PIT F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zac Thornton L
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC27%88 mph20% whiff
FF25%92 mph14% whiff
ST15%80 mph27% whiff
Carmen Mlodzinski R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%95 mph15% whiff
FS26%86 mph30% whiff
SI17%94 mph3% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
84°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.056 Total: 1.029
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.34ERA
4.28FIP
9.26K/9
4.13BB/9
1.39WHIP
PIT
3.51ERA
3.67FIP
9.95K/9
4.11BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-16.0% EV
+102
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-11.7% EV
+102
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-9.7% EV
-185
F5 UNDER 4.5
+8.8% EV
-110
ML AWAY
-6.7% EV
+120
NRFI NRFI
+6.0% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
1.7 runs
32.8% win
PIT F5
2.4 runs
49.4% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
59.7%
YRFI
40.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.78
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
14%
Esmerlyn Valdez PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.520 | Barrel: 20.0% | vs Zac Thornton | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Brandon Lowe PIT29.4%
ISO: 0.123 | Barrel: 13.3% | vs Zac Thornton | Park: 0.95x
Bryan Reynolds PIT25.8%
ISO: 0.192 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Zac Thornton | Park: 0.95x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zac Thornton
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Carmen Mlodzinski
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYM7 injured
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Austin Warren RP15-DAY-IL
Juan Soto LF10-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
PIT4 injured
Oneil Cruz CF60-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Model favors PIT ML DESPITE Thornton having the better ERA - the edge is entirely a bullpen-quality story (3.51 vs 4.34 ERA), not a pitching mismatch.
Key Factors
- SP essentially even: Mlodzinski 3.40 ERA (8.0 K/9) vs Thornton 3.11 ERA (8.0 K/9) - Thornton technically the better arm
- Bullpen gap favors PIT: 3.51 ERA/1.282 quality vs NYM 4.34 ERA/1.037 quality - this is the real driver of the home lean, not the starter
- Model favors PIT despite Thornton's lower ERA - edge comes from bullpen, not SP
- F5 UNDER 4.5 edge 8.8% (model 57.0%) - supports low-scoring early frames
- Thin-air PNC Park adds modest HR boost (1.056x) offsetting some of the under lean
Risk Factors
- Model favors the team with the WORSE starter (Mlodzinski 3.40 > Thornton 3.11) - classic case where market could be right and we're leaning on bullpen only
- Edge is small (1.9%) - low conviction
- 0/15 lineups confirmed as of this pull
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PIT 60.6%
+4.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+4.3 pts
Total
8.5
+1.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.