LAA vs MIA prediction for August 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 4.9 - LAA 2.8. MIA is favored with a 65.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
MIA
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAA
2.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIALAA
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.8% (3,199 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
135
MIA
357
Projected
MIA 4.9 — LAA 2.8
Actual
MIA 3 — LAA 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
George Klassen R
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%97 mph33% whiff
CH26%88 mph13% whiff
SL14%91 mph60% whiff
Tyler Phillips R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI26%96 mph4% whiff
ST24%84 mph32% whiff
FS23%87 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
82°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.987 Total: 0.990
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
3.69ERA
4.33FIP
10.02K/9
4.48BB/9
1.28WHIP
MIA
4.21ERA
3.93FIP
9.62K/9
4.12BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
1.5 runs
22.8% win
MIA F5
3.2 runs
62.3% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
57.8%
YRFI
42.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.91
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAA7 injured
Sam Bachman RP15-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Sebastian Rivero C10-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
Robert Stephenson RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
MIA7 injured
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP15-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +2
Klassen's 12.50 ERA and 31.8% walk rate represent one of the most extreme starter mismatches on the board, and the market's 58.8% implied home probability meaningfully underprices how bad this specific start projects to be.
Key Factors
- Klassen (away, MIA opponent... actually LAA opponent) has a 12.50 ERA and a 31.8% BB-rate - one of the worst start profiles you'll see, vs Phillips' solid 3.81 ERA
- ML edge is a sane, non-overconfident 3.4% - clean signal, not a trap
- F5_ML home edge jumps to 13.9% (model 69.4%) - Klassen's control issues (31.8% BB rate) are especially damaging in the first 5 before a quick hook
- Home run-line cover prob at -1.5 is 46.5% (edge 8.7%) - MIA capable of a blowout given Klassen's control issues
- Combo home-ML historical support GREEN (a supportive track record, n=105) backs the side structurally
Risk Factors
- 12.50 ERA is an extreme outlier - verify Klassen is actually confirmed as the starter and hasn't been scratched
- Home favorite ML historical supports carry some historical softness in small-sample profile splits (a supportive track record home-side, n=7, in 30-day profile) - watch bet sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.