FINAL: MIL 6 — MIN 8. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIL 4.7 - MIN 3.0 (MIL at 64.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
MIL
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIN
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILMIN
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.2% (3,199 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
135
MIL
357
Projected
MIL 4.7 — MIN 3.0
Actual
MIL 6 — MIN 8
Pick Results
MIN @ MIL NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zebby Matthews R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF37%95 mph12% whiff
SL22%87 mph33% whiff
CU13%80 mph38% whiff
Shane Drohan L
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF29%95 mph26% whiff
SI21%95 mph11% whiff
SL20%86 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
88°F11 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.061 Total: 1.031
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.14ERA
3.85FIP
9.11K/9
3.85BB/9
1.36WHIP
MIL
3.49ERA
3.66FIP
9.28K/9
3.77BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-18.1% EV
+144
TOTAL OVER 8.0
-12.7% EV
-112
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-11.0% EV
-154
ML AWAY
-5.8% EV
+152
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+5.0% EV
+128
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+3.9% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
1.7 runs
27.2% win
MIL F5
3.0 runs
57.7% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
54.7%
YRFI
45.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
65%
No HR
10%
Jake Bauers MIL30.0%
ISO: 0.238 | Barrel: 13.4% | vs Zebby Matthews | Platoon: 1.12x
Jackson Chourio MIL26.6%
ISO: 0.191 | Barrel: 9.7% | vs Zebby Matthews
Kody Clemens MIN26.5%
ISO: 0.236 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Shane Drohan
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zebby Matthews
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Shane Drohan
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Joe Ryan SP15-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Sal Frelick RF10-DAY-IL
Kyle Harrison SPDAY-TO-DAY
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Market is correctly pricing MIL as a solid favorite given the Drohan/Matthews ERA gap - with a 0.2% model-market gap there's no exploitable edge in any direction.
Key Factors
- Drohan (home, MIL) 3.76 ERA vs Matthews (away, MIN) 5.64 ERA - real SP edge to MIL, matches market direction exactly
- ML edge is essentially zero (0.2%) - market has already priced this correctly, no value
- NRFI edge only 2.0%, below our 8% actionable threshold
- Total UNDER edge 3.9% - modest, not a standout
Risk Factors
- No edge means no reason to bet against an efficient market here
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 64.3%
+5.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+5.0 pts
Total
8.0
+3.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.