FINAL: PHI 4 — TOR 5. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected PHI 3.9 - TOR 3.1 (PHI at 57.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
PHI
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TOR
3.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHITOR
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (3,199 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
135
PHI
246
Projected
PHI 3.9 — TOR 3.1
Actual
PHI 4 — TOR 5
Pick Results
TOR @ PHI NRFInrfiWIN+0.39u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
José Soriano R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI26%96 mph19% whiff
KC25%85 mph42% whiff
FF24%97 mph20% whiff
Zack Wheeler R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%95 mph24% whiff
FS16%87 mph46% whiff
SI15%95 mph8% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
92°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.093 Total: 1.051
thin air, 11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.22ERA
3.78FIP
7.85K/9
3.70BB/9
1.29WHIP
PHI
4.22ERA
3.73FIP
10.52K/9
3.44BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-12.1% EV
-112
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-7.4% EV
+105
F5_ML HOME
-7.1% EV
-213
ML AWAY
+6.5% EV
+182
ML HOME
-6.0% EV
-196
NRFI NRFI
+4.7% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
1.5 runs
30.3% win
PHI F5
2.3 runs
50.4% win
F5 Total
3.8
NRFI
60.4%
YRFI
39.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.76
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.0
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
14%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.275 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs José Soriano | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Kazuma Okamoto TOR25.5%
ISO: 0.220 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Zack Wheeler | Park: 1.02x
Bryce Harper PHI24.5%
ISO: 0.322 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs José Soriano | Park: 1.02x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
José Soriano
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Zack Wheeler
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Luis Urias 2B10-DAY-IL
Spencer Arrighetti SP15-DAY-IL
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Patrick Corbin SP60-DAY-IL
Lenyn Sosa 2B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
PHI7 injured
Derek Hill CFDAY-TO-DAY
Andrew Painter SPDAY-TO-DAY
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Market is likely correct here - Wheeler's ace-level mismatch against Soriano is real, and while TOR's bullpen creates a small value overlay, it's not enough to override the RED away-ML historical support history plus Guerrero's injury uncertainty.
Key Factors
- Wheeler is a legit ace: 2.69 ERA, 31.3% K-rate, 5.7% BB-rate vs Soriano's solid-but-lesser 3.55 ERA, 24.7% K-rate
- Model's 6.5% edge on TOR ML is a fade-the-vig play, not a prediction TOR wins outright (model still has PHI favored 62.2%)
- TOR bullpen (3.22 ERA, 1.398 quality) is meaningfully better than PHI's (4.22 ERA, 1.066 quality) - the actual source of the value
- Away-side ML is historically weak overall (a supportive track record, n=105) even though this specific 5-10% bucket is YELLOW (53.2%, n=22)
- Guerrero Jr. DAY-TO-DAY (hamstring) - if he sits, TOR's value case weakens further
Risk Factors
- Betting against a 2.69 ERA ace on a 6.5% edge in a historically historically weak is low-conviction by design
- Vladdy injury status unresolved as of this pull
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 57.6%
-7.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-7.4 pts
Total
7.5
+3.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.