FINAL: BOS 13 — OAK 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BOS 5.2 - OAK 4.1 (BOS at 57.6% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.3 total runs.
BOS
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
OAK
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSOAK
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
OAK L5BOS
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.7% (3,199 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
246
BOS
357
Projected
BOS 5.2 — OAK 4.1
Actual
BOS 13 — OAK 1
Pick Results
OAK @ BOS NRFInrfiWIN+0.83u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jack Perkins R
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%96 mph15% whiff
ST28%86 mph35% whiff
CH19%90 mph42% whiff
Payton Tolle L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%96 mph25% whiff
SI22%95 mph11% whiff
FC19%88 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
90°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.045 Total: 1.023
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
4.97ERA
4.42FIP
9.76K/9
4.36BB/9
1.49WHIP
BOS
3.41ERA
3.62FIP
9.37K/9
3.16BB/9
1.24WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
+16.4% EV
+200
F5_ML HOME
-15.5% EV
-263
ML AWAY
+14.5% EV
+235
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-9.9% EV
-127
ML HOME
-9.2% EV
-263
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-8.9% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
2.2 runs
35.6% win
BOS F5
2.9 runs
50.1% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
57.3%
YRFI
42.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.89
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
8%
Wilyer Abreu BOS28.0%
ISO: 0.203 | Barrel: 10.2% | vs Jack Perkins | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Max Muncy OAK26.6%
ISO: 0.259 | Barrel: 13.9% | vs Payton Tolle | Park: 1.08x Platoon: 1.12x
Tyler Soderstrom OAK23.4%
ISO: 0.196 | Barrel: 10.7% | vs Payton Tolle | Park: 1.08x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jack Perkins
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Payton Tolle
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Jeffrey Springs SP15-DAY-IL
Zack Gelof 3B10-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B10-DAY-IL
Mark Leiter Jr. RP60-DAY-IL
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Adley Rutschman C10-DAY-IL
Willson Contreras 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Model is likely overconfident here - Perkins (7.26 ERA) and OAK's bullpen (4.97 ERA) are both worse than their BOS counterparts, so a 14.5% model edge on the OAK dog is a red flag for model error, not a market inefficiency to exploit.
Key Factors
- Perkins (away, OAK) has a 7.26 ERA and 8.4% K-rate profile that's a disaster start on paper, vs Tolle's clean 3.56 ERA
- OAK bullpen is also the weaker unit: 4.97 ERA/0.905 quality vs BOS 3.41 ERA/1.32 quality - double disadvantage for OAK
- Model's 14.5% edge on OAK ML is in the classic overconfidence red-flag historical support
- historical support sample is tiny - not enough data to trust a contrarian fade of a -263 favorite
- BOS -263 implies 72.5% - a big but not absurd favorite given the SP/bullpen gap on both sides
Risk Factors
- 14.5% edge on a team with the objectively worse starter AND worse bullpen is exactly the scenario our quant principles warn against (edge anti-correlated with outcomes)
- Betting the -263 favorite offers poor payout even if directionally correct
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 57.6%
-9.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-9.9 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.