BOS vs TEX prediction for September 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 3.6 - BOS 4.0. BOS is favored with a 51.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.6 total runs.
TEX
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BOS
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXBOS
+1.5
Run Line (TEX)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.1% (3,953 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
246
TEX
246
Projected
TEX 3.6 — BOS 4.0
Actual
TEX 7 — BOS 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jake Bennett L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%93 mph18% whiff
CH26%84 mph31% whiff
SI24%92 mph9% whiff
MacKenzie Gore L
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%95 mph21% whiff
CU18%82 mph27% whiff
CH13%86 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
96°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.037 Total: 1.018
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.03ERA
3.29FIP
9.88K/9
3.05BB/9
1.20WHIP
TEX
4.32ERA
4.46FIP
8.50K/9
3.77BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.2 runs
44.4% win
TEX F5
2.0 runs
38.5% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
57.9%
YRFI
42.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.86
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
Curtis Mead 3B10-DAY-IL
Anthony Seigler 2B10-DAY-IL
Johan Oviedo SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Michael Helman CF60-DAY-IL
Joc Pederson DHDAY-TO-DAY
Cal Quantrill RPDAY-TO-DAY
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.