CHC vs ARI prediction for August 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 4.1 - CHC 4.7. CHC is favored with a 52.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
ARI
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CHC
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARICHC
+1.5
Run Line (ARI)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.8% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
357
ARI
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Clay Holmes R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI50%93 mph10% whiff
ST19%82 mph24% whiff
CH15%88 mph30% whiff
Brandon Pfaadt R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%93 mph12% whiff
SI18%93 mph8% whiff
CH16%87 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
111°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.078 Total: 1.039
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.01ERA
4.55FIP
8.97K/9
3.95BB/9
1.31WHIP
ARI
3.33ERA
3.63FIP
7.81K/9
2.90BB/9
1.15WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.4 runs
46.2% win
ARI F5
2.1 runs
37.4% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
59.1%
YRFI
40.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.83
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI8 injured
Tommy Troy LF10-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Ketel Marte 2B10-DAY-IL
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. LF10-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Zac Gallen SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.