FINAL: SD 8 — CHC 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SD 4.3 - CHC 4.4 (SD at 50.3% win probability). SD wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
SD
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CHC
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDCHC
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CHCSD W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.2% (4,043 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
SD
246
Projected
SD 4.3 — CHC 4.4
Actual
SD 8 — CHC 0
Pick Results
CHC MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Matthew Boyd L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%93 mph13% whiff
CH28%79 mph26% whiff
SL14%83 mph35% whiff
Michael King R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI28%93 mph14% whiff
CH26%86 mph25% whiff
FF20%94 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
74°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.048 Total: 1.026
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.24ERA
4.64FIP
9.18K/9
4.07BB/9
1.33WHIP
SD
2.84ERA
3.52FIP
9.80K/9
3.90BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
NRFI NRFI
-9.3% EV
-135
F5_ML HOME
-7.5% EV
-123
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+7.0% EV
+101
ML HOME
-4.3% EV
-127
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-3.3% EV
+168
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-2.2% EV
-189
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.4 runs
41.6% win
SD F5
2.5 runs
42.2% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
50.7%
YRFI
49.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.09
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
72%
No HR
8%
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.322 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Michael King | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Fernando Tatis Jr. SD28.9%
ISO: 0.274 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs Matthew Boyd | Park: 0.90x Platoon: 1.12x
Jackson Merrill SD24.1%
ISO: 0.160 | Barrel: 9.3% | vs Matthew Boyd | Park: 0.90x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Matthew Boyd
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Michael King
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SPBEREAVEMENT
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Trent Thornton RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Rodolfo Duran C60-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Laureano LF60-DAY-IL
Luis Rengifo LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +0
Model favors CHC 56.2% vs market 47.6% (8.6% edge) on lineup-quality grounds rather than a starting-pitching edge — Michael King (relief-profile arm, 3.47 ERA) is only marginally better than Matthew Boyd (4.22 ERA) — so the edge is moderate, sits in a historically healthy 5-10% bucket, but is undercut by a weak historical support and CHC's shattered bullpen, warranting a LEAN rather than a full BET.
Key Factors
- Pitcher matchup is marginal, not the driver of this edge: Michael King (B-, 3.47 ERA, 20.8% K-rate, 9.2% BB-rate, relief-profile usage) vs Matthew Boyd (B-, 4.22 ERA, 18.5% K-rate, 7.5% BB-rate) = 0.75 ERA gap slightly favoring SD, but King's unusual relief-role background adds uncertainty to that read
- Model 56.2% vs market 47.6% = 8.6% edge sits in the historically healthier 5-10% edge bucket (a supportive track record trailing 30 days) rather than the riskier 15%+ historical support
- The model's lean toward CHC despite SD's marginal pitching edge implies the driver is lineup/offense quality, not starting pitching — the edge should be attributed to bat quality, not the arm
- Petco Park's 0.9 park factor suppresses run scoring roughly 10%, a mild under-lean context that doesn't materially change the ML calculus
- Away underdog historical support at this profile (a supportive track record, n=26) is a modest but real headwind against full conviction
Risk Factors
- Michael King's relief-arm usage profile for a 'starting pitcher' role is unusual and adds data-quality uncertainty to the pitching read for this game
- Away underdog historical support historically weak (a supportive track record, n=26) tempers confidence despite the edge sitting in a good bucket
- CHC's bullpen is severely decimated (Shelby Miller, Ben Brown, Phil Maton, Porter Hodge, Cade Horton, Hunter Harvey all out) — a critical risk factor if this game goes into the late innings or an extended series
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 50.3%
-3.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-3.3 pts
Total
7.5
+7.0 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.