BOS vs NYY prediction for September 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 4.1 - BOS 3.8. NYY is favored with a 54.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
NYY
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
BOS
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYBOS
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (4,045 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
246
NYY
246
Projected
NYY 4.1 — BOS 3.8
Actual
NYY 9 — BOS 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sonny Gray R
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI22%92 mph13% whiff
ST20%85 mph37% whiff
FC19%88 mph12% whiff
Max Fried L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC22%92 mph24% whiff
SI21%93 mph17% whiff
FF18%95 mph15% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
63°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.009 Total: 1.004
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.12ERA
3.30FIP
10.11K/9
3.19BB/9
1.21WHIP
NYY
3.29ERA
4.13FIP
8.35K/9
3.61BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
1.9 runs
34.7% win
NYY F5
2.4 runs
47.3% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
56.4%
YRFI
43.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.87
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Roman Anthony LFDAY-TO-DAY
Mickey Gasper DH10-DAY-IL
Romy Gonzalez DHDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Slaten RP60-DAY-IL
Eli White CF60-DAY-IL
Tyron Guerrero RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY5 injured
Ryan Weathers SP15-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF10-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP60-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP15-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.