CHC vs SD prediction for September 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 4.2 - CHC 4.2. SD is favored with a 51.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
SD
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CHC
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDCHC
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.6% (4,045 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
246
SD
246
Projected
SD 4.2 — CHC 4.2
Actual
SD 4 — CHC 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kevin Gausman R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF51%94 mph12% whiff
FS39%84 mph41% whiff
SL8%84 mph35% whiff
Nick Pivetta R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF51%94 mph15% whiff
CU22%79 mph21% whiff
FC13%91 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
68°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.032 Total: 1.017
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.24ERA
4.64FIP
9.18K/9
4.07BB/9
1.33WHIP
SD
2.84ERA
3.52FIP
9.80K/9
3.90BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.3 runs
41.1% win
SD F5
2.4 runs
43.7% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
51.5%
YRFI
48.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.05
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SPBEREAVEMENT
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Trent Thornton RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Rodolfo Duran C60-DAY-IL
Casey Mize SP15-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Laureano LF60-DAY-IL
Luis Rengifo LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.