CWS vs HOU prediction for September 30, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 3.9 - CWS 3.8. HOU is favored with a 53.7% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
HOU
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CWS
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUCWS
-1.5
Run Line (HOU)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.5% (4,045 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
246
HOU
246
Projected
HOU 3.9 — CWS 3.8
Actual
HOU 3 — CWS 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sean Burke R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF37%95 mph21% whiff
KC20%79 mph27% whiff
SL16%86 mph32% whiff
Hunter Brown R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI31%96 mph19% whiff
FF30%96 mph21% whiff
KC18%83 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Daikin Park
86°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.079 Total: 1.043
thin air, 8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
3.74ERA
4.22FIP
9.17K/9
4.42BB/9
1.29WHIP
HOU
3.66ERA
4.11FIP
9.13K/9
3.65BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.1 runs
39.3% win
HOU F5
2.2 runs
43.7% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
55.6%
YRFI
44.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
HOU8 injured
Daulton Varsho CF10-DAY-IL
Steven Okert RP15-DAY-IL
Ethan Pecko SPDAY-TO-DAY
Mike Burrows SP60-DAY-IL
Jake Meyers CF60-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.