CHC vs SEA prediction for August 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 3.2 - CHC 5.0. CHC is favored with a 61.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
SEA
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CHC
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEACHC
+1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 66.2% (3,472 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
357
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 3.2 — CHC 5.0
Actual
SEA 6 — CHC 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
David Peterson L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI30%92 mph13% whiff
FF24%92 mph18% whiff
SL23%86 mph27% whiff
Kade Anderson L
SEA
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
79°F1 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.030 Total: 1.015
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.04ERA
4.57FIP
9.00K/9
4.00BB/9
1.31WHIP
SEA
3.68ERA
3.95FIP
9.04K/9
3.36BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
2.8 runs
56.5% win
SEA F5
1.6 runs
26.7% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
60.7%
YRFI
39.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.79
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Bryan Woo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Luke Raley RF60-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Colt Emerson SS10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.