FINAL: BAL 5 — TB 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected BAL 4.1 - TB 3.3 (BAL at 56.1% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.4 total runs.
BAL
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TB
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALTB
-1.5
Run Line (BAL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TB L4BAL W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
135
BAL
246
Projected
BAL 4.1 — TB 3.3
Actual
BAL 5 — TB 3
Pick Results
TB @ BAL NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Freddy Peralta R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF54%94 mph19% whiff
CH22%87 mph26% whiff
CU13%79 mph34% whiff
Trevor Rogers L
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%94 mph20% whiff
CH22%87 mph23% whiff
ST13%78 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
79°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.016 Total: 1.007
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.88ERA
4.11FIP
8.69K/9
2.79BB/9
1.19WHIP
BAL
4.37ERA
3.90FIP
8.73K/9
3.72BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-16.4% EV
+102
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-11.6% EV
-122
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-7.8% EV
-208
ML AWAY
-5.2% EV
+106
F5_ML HOME
+4.3% EV
-128
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+2.8% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
1.6 runs
31.6% win
BAL F5
2.4 runs
50.6% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
58.9%
YRFI
41.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.81
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
56%
No HR
15%
Ryan Vilade TB30.0%
ISO: 0.254 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Trevor Rogers | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Alonso BAL30.0%
ISO: 0.247 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Freddy Peralta | Park: 1.03x
Junior Caminero TB26.9%
ISO: 0.215 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Trevor Rogers | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Freddy Peralta
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Trevor Rogers
0.0 K projected
BAL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
BAL8 injured
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Colin Selby RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Keegan Akin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Model (54.0% BAL) and market (53.8% implied) are essentially identical; Rogers' ERA advantage over Peralta (4.48 vs 5.69) is offset by TB's superior bullpen (3.88 vs BAL's 4.37 ERA), netting out to a true coin flip with no market inefficiency.
Key Factors
- Rogers 4.48 ERA beats Peralta 5.69 ERA by 1.21 — real SP edge to BAL
- TB bullpen 3.88 ERA (quality 1.16) outclasses BAL 4.37 ERA (quality 1.03) — offsets SP gap in late innings
- Neutral weather (78.6°F, 4.8 mph wind, mild tailwind), park factor 1.03
- Model-market gap of only 0.2pp confirms fair pricing
Risk Factors
- Peralta's 5.69 ERA is a real concern but has been priced already
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BAL 56.1%
+2.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+2.6 pts
Total
7.5
+2.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.