LAA vs TEX prediction for August 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TEX 4.4 - LAA 3.3. TEX is favored with a 59.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
TEX
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
LAA
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
TEXLAA
-1.5
Run Line (TEX)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.6% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
135
TEX
246
Projected
TEX 4.4 — LAA 3.3
Actual
TEX 2 — LAA 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Johnson R
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC34%90 mph24% whiff
SI24%92 mph3% whiff
FS23%85 mph35% whiff
Cody Bradford L
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF50%88 mph15% whiff
CH37%81 mph16% whiff
SL8%81 mph0% whiff
Weather Impact
Globe Life Field
100°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.052 Total: 1.025
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
3.89ERA
4.22FIP
9.32K/9
3.80BB/9
1.30WHIP
TEX
4.27ERA
4.38FIP
8.44K/9
3.76BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
1.7 runs
29.4% win
TEX F5
2.7 runs
54.0% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
59.6%
YRFI
40.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Wade Meckler LFDAY-TO-DAY
Nolan Schanuel 1BDAY-TO-DAY
Sebastian Rivero C60-DAY-IL
Samy Natera Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Sam Bachman RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TEX8 injured
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Nathan Eovaldi SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Corniell RP60-DAY-IL
Jalen Beeks RP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.