FINAL: KC 5 — DET 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected KC 5.2 - DET 6.0 (DET at 52.6% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.2 total runs.
KC
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
DET
6.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCDET
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
468
KC
357
Projected
KC 5.2 — DET 6.0
Actual
KC 5 — DET 2
Pick Results
DET @ KC NRFInrfiWIN+0.39u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Drew Anderson R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph18% whiff
CH30%90 mph35% whiff
CU23%80 mph33% whiff
Michael Wacha R
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%93 mph16% whiff
CH24%81 mph26% whiff
FC15%89 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
90°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.039 Total: 1.018
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.29ERA
4.63FIP
8.38K/9
4.32BB/9
1.35WHIP
KC
5.00ERA
5.16FIP
7.86K/9
4.83BB/9
1.50WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-18.6% EV
-122
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+10.6% EV
+100
F5 OVER 4.5
+9.9% EV
+102
F5_ML HOME
-8.5% EV
-118
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-7.9% EV
-192
ML HOME
-4.4% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
3.0 runs
44.9% win
KC F5
2.9 runs
42.2% win
F5 Total
5.9
NRFI
53.1%
YRFI
46.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
76%
No HR
7%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Drew Anderson
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Michael Wacha
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Brant Hurter RP60-DAY-IL
James Outman CF7-DAY IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Riley Greene LF10-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
KC8 injured
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
Beck Way RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Nick Mears RP60-DAY-IL
Tony Gonsolin SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Troy Melton's elite 1.61 ERA vs Cameron's 4.49 ERA is a real 2.88-run swing favoring Detroit, but the market has already captured this with a near pick'em line (+104/-104, 51.0% implied), matching the model's 50.7% DET probability almost exactly.
Key Factors
- Melton 1.61 ERA (elite) vs Cameron 4.49 ERA (below average) — 2.88 ERA gap is largest pitcher mismatch on the slate
- DET bullpen 4.29 ERA (quality 1.05) edges KC 5.0 ERA (quality 0.90)
- Hot weather 90.5°F, thin-air Kauffman park (density altitude 2244 ft) inflates scoring
- Model-market gap of just 0.3pp confirms the market has already captured Melton's edge
Risk Factors
- Away favorite at pick'em odds can be a value trap if pitcher's recent form regresses
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 52.6%
-7.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-7.9 pts
Total
8.5
+10.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.