OAK vs HOU prediction for August 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 6.3 - OAK 4.7. HOU is favored with a 60.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.0 total runs.
HOU
6.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
OAK
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
HOUOAK
-1.5
Run Line (HOU)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.6% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
OAK
357
HOU
468
Projected
HOU 6.3 — OAK 4.7
Actual
HOU 4 — OAK 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob Lopez L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%90 mph17% whiff
SL33%77 mph27% whiff
FC20%86 mph24% whiff
Hunter Brown R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%96 mph19% whiff
SI29%96 mph18% whiff
KC20%83 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
Daikin Park
94°F2 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.033 Total: 1.016
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
OAK
5.15ERA
4.26FIP
9.67K/9
4.48BB/9
1.55WHIP
HOU
3.44ERA
4.01FIP
9.22K/9
3.53BB/9
1.18WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
OAK F5
2.6 runs
33.5% win
HOU F5
3.6 runs
54.0% win
F5 Total
6.2
NRFI
51.0%
YRFI
49.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.12
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
OAK8 injured
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Tyler Soderstrom LF60-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B10-DAY-IL
Justin Sterner RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
HOU5 injured
Jeremy Pena SSDAY-TO-DAY
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF60-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.