TOR vs NYY prediction for August 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 3.9 - TOR 3.2. NYY is favored with a 55.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
NYY
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
TOR
3.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYTOR
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
135
NYY
246
Projected
NYY 3.9 — TOR 3.2
Actual
NYY 3 — TOR 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mason Fluharty L
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC49%91 mph18% whiff
ST41%82 mph34% whiff
CH10%87 mph27% whiff
Cam Schlittler R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF44%98 mph31% whiff
FC26%95 mph20% whiff
SI20%98 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
72°F4 mph wind
HR: 0.999 Total: 0.998
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.67ERA
4.16FIP
8.09K/9
3.83BB/9
1.30WHIP
NYY
2.99ERA
3.92FIP
8.52K/9
3.59BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
1.6 runs
33.4% win
NYY F5
2.1 runs
46.2% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
65.7%
YRFI
34.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.65
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Andres Gimenez SSDAY-TO-DAY
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B7-DAY IL
Brett Bateman CFDAY-TO-DAY
Joe Mantiply RP60-DAY-IL
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY7 injured
Ryan McMahon 3B10-DAY-IL
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Max Fried SP15-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.