WSH vs MIA prediction for August 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 4.6 - WSH 3.6. MIA is favored with a 58.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
MIA
4.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
WSH
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIAWSH
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.4% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
WSH
246
MIA
357
Projected
MIA 4.6 — WSH 3.6
Actual
MIA 3 — WSH 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brad Lord R
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%95 mph21% whiff
SI23%94 mph11% whiff
SL22%85 mph23% whiff
Ryan Gusto R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%94 mph20% whiff
CH15%87 mph20% whiff
FC14%89 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
85°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.987 Total: 0.990
thin air, 9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
WSH
5.46ERA
5.19FIP
9.00K/9
4.73BB/9
1.55WHIP
MIA
4.19ERA
3.90FIP
9.67K/9
4.11BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
WSH F5
1.9 runs
35.3% win
MIA F5
2.4 runs
47.1% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
56.5%
YRFI
43.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
WSH8 injured
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
CJ Abrams SSDAY-TO-DAY
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
James Wood RF10-DAY-IL
Drew Millas C10-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIA8 injured
William Kempner RP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Kyle Stowers 1B10-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.