CLE vs BAL prediction for September 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BAL 3.6 - CLE 4.3. CLE is favored with a 58.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
BAL
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CLE
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
BALCLE
+1.5
Run Line (BAL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.7% (3,685 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
BAL
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Foster Griffin L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC32%88 mph16% whiff
FF17%92 mph16% whiff
ST14%80 mph26% whiff
Shane Baz R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%96 mph14% whiff
KC33%85 mph28% whiff
FC15%90 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
89°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.083 Total: 1.045
thin air, 10mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.33ERA
3.65FIP
10.15K/9
3.74BB/9
1.22WHIP
BAL
4.09ERA
3.76FIP
8.87K/9
3.62BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.2 runs
43.9% win
BAL F5
2.1 runs
39.2% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
55.6%
YRFI
44.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CLE3 injured
Colin Holderman RP15-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
BAL8 injured
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Gunnar Henderson SSDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Christian Franklin CF10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.