HOU vs PHI prediction for September 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PHI 5.8 - HOU 5.0. PHI is favored with a 59.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.9 total runs.
PHI
5.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
HOU
5.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
PHIHOU
-1.5
Run Line (PHI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.3% (3,870 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
357
PHI
468
Projected
PHI 5.8 — HOU 5.0
Actual
PHI 1 — HOU 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cristian Javier R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF48%93 mph24% whiff
ST26%81 mph38% whiff
CH16%86 mph33% whiff
Zack Wheeler R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%95 mph25% whiff
SI16%95 mph10% whiff
FS15%87 mph44% whiff
Weather Impact
Citizens Bank Park
87°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.057 Total: 1.030
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
3.52ERA
3.95FIP
9.27K/9
3.56BB/9
1.20WHIP
PHI
4.33ERA
3.91FIP
10.27K/9
3.55BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.8 runs
36.3% win
PHI F5
3.5 runs
50.9% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
41.2%
YRFI
58.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.40
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
HOU5 injured
Mike Burrows SP60-DAY-IL
Steven Okert RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
PHI6 injured
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Reyes LF60-DAY-IL
Caleb Kilian RP15-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.