PIT vs CHC prediction for September 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 6.1 - PIT 5.4. CHC is favored with a 58.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.5 total runs.
CHC
6.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PIT
5.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCPIT
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.5% (3,883 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
357
CHC
468
Projected
CHC 6.1 — PIT 5.4
Actual
CHC 12 — PIT 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Wilber Dotel R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%98 mph14% whiff
SL23%88 mph32% whiff
FC22%92 mph27% whiff
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF41%92 mph17% whiff
FS33%83 mph40% whiff
ST15%81 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
75°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.028 Total: 1.014
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
3.58ERA
3.60FIP
9.72K/9
4.20BB/9
1.25WHIP
CHC
4.34ERA
4.75FIP
9.30K/9
4.10BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
3.0 runs
38.1% win
CHC F5
3.6 runs
49.8% win
F5 Total
6.5
NRFI
44.0%
YRFI
56.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.35
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PIT5 injured
Braxton Ashcraft SP15-DAY-IL
Isaac Mattson RP15-DAY-IL
Kirby Yates RP15-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
CHC8 injured
Dansby Swanson SS10-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.