KC vs BOS prediction for September 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects BOS 5.5 - KC 4.6. BOS is favored with a 63.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 10.1 total runs.
BOS
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
KC
4.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
BOSKC
-1.5
Run Line (BOS)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 73.3% (3,883 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
357
BOS
467
Projected
BOS 5.5 — KC 4.6
Actual
BOS 2 — KC 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Seth Lugo R
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI20%92 mph10% whiff
FF16%92 mph12% whiff
FC16%90 mph21% whiff
Sonny Gray R
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI22%92 mph13% whiff
ST20%85 mph38% whiff
FC19%88 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Fenway Park
72°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.026 Total: 1.014
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.80ERA
4.93FIP
7.78K/9
4.68BB/9
1.53WHIP
BOS
3.07ERA
3.30FIP
9.81K/9
2.94BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
2.5 runs
33.4% win
BOS F5
3.4 runs
53.8% win
F5 Total
5.9
NRFI
47.2%
YRFI
52.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.22
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Jac Caglianone RFDAY-TO-DAY
James McArthur RP60-DAY-IL
Tony Gonsolin SP15-DAY-IL
Connor Seabold RP60-DAY-IL
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
Beck Way RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
BOS8 injured
Eli White CF10-DAY-IL
Willson Contreras 1B10-DAY-IL
Tanner Houck SP60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
Kutter Crawford SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.