FINAL: WSH 4 — LAA 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected WSH 5.5 - LAA 4.9 (WSH at 58.0% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.4 total runs.
WSH
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
LAA
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHLAA
-1.5
Run Line (WSH)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
LAA W4WSH W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.5% (3,883 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAA
357
WSH
467
Projected
WSH 5.5 — LAA 4.9
Actual
WSH 4 — LAA 3
Pick Results
WSH MLmlWIN+0.35u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Yusei Kikuchi L
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph15% whiff
SL24%87 mph24% whiff
FS18%87 mph28% whiff
Cade Cavalli R
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%97 mph19% whiff
KC27%86 mph36% whiff
ST14%86 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
84°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.018 Total: 1.008
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
LAA
4.07ERA
4.11FIP
9.57K/9
3.88BB/9
1.35WHIP
WSH
5.85ERA
5.32FIP
8.96K/9
4.98BB/9
1.58WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+20.1% EV
-110
NRFI NRFI
-15.0% EV
-128
F5 OVER 4.5
+13.2% EV
+108
F5_ML HOME
-9.4% EV
-196
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-5.3% EV
-161
NRFI YRFI
+4.5% EV
+100
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAA F5
2.7 runs
36.5% win
WSH F5
3.4 runs
50.7% win
F5 Total
6.0
NRFI
45.0%
YRFI
55.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.26
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.3
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
83%
No HR
4%
James Wood WSH30.0%
ISO: 0.226 | Barrel: 15.0% | vs Yusei Kikuchi
Andrés Chaparro WSH29.5%
ISO: 0.145 | Barrel: 14.5% | vs Yusei Kikuchi | Platoon: 1.12x
Mike Trout LAA28.7%
ISO: 0.185 | Barrel: 9.0% | vs Cade Cavalli
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Yusei Kikuchi
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Cade Cavalli
0.0 K projected
WSH | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
LAA8 injured
Sam Bachman RP15-DAY-IL
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
George Klassen SP15-DAY-IL
Gustavo Campero OF10-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
Jack Kochanowicz SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
Connelly Early SP60-DAY-IL
Nasim Nunez 2BBEREAVEMENT
Drew Millas C60-DAY-IL
Orlando Ribalta RP15-DAY-IL
Matt Waldron RP15-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Model projects 10.37 runs vs 7.5 market (20.1% edge) driven by a real SP mismatch — Cavalli (3.37 ERA elite) vs Kikuchi (5.36 ERA, 8.8% BB) — plus warm 83.5F weather; direction is strong even though edge magnitude should be haircut for overconfidence.
Key Factors
- SP mismatch: Cavalli 3.37 ERA/27.3%K/B-grade vs Kikuchi 5.36 ERA/22.7%K/8.8%BB — ~2 ERA gap
- Weather: 83.5F with light wind adds modest run boost, density altitude 1585
- F5 edge +13.2% OVER 4.5 (model 54.4%) confirms early scoring lean
- Kikuchi's high BB rate (8.8%) means free baserunners against a good LAA lineup
Risk Factors
- HIGH_EDGE_WARNING: 20.1% edge in overconfident cluster (a supportive track record historically >15%)
- historically mixed total market a supportive track record — reduce unit size accordingly
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
WSH 58.0%
+1.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+1.7 pts
Total
7.5
+20.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.