HOU vs TB prediction for September 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TB 5.7 - HOU 4.5. TB is favored with a 67.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 10.2 total runs.
TB
5.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
HOU
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
TBHOU
-1.5
Run Line (TB)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 73.3% (3,883 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
346
TB
468
Projected
TB 5.7 — HOU 4.5
Actual
TB 3 — HOU 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Miguel Ullola R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF74%95 mph21% whiff
SL23%86 mph25% whiff
CU3%83 mph50% whiff
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC29%90 mph23% whiff
FF28%96 mph23% whiff
SI23%95 mph14% whiff
Weather Impact
Tropicana Field
81°F2 mph windRoof: closed
HR: 1.000 Total: 1.000
Indoor (neutral)
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
3.50ERA
3.92FIP
9.29K/9
3.53BB/9
1.19WHIP
TB
3.66ERA
3.94FIP
8.78K/9
2.82BB/9
1.15WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.2 runs
30.7% win
TB F5
3.3 runs
56.4% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
48.6%
YRFI
51.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.14
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
HOU5 injured
Mike Burrows SP60-DAY-IL
Steven Okert RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
TB8 injured
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
Taylor Walls SS10-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Cleavinger RP15-DAY-IL
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.