COL vs DET prediction for September 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.1 - COL 3.8. DET is favored with a 55.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
DET
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
COL
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETCOL
-1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (3,883 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
246
DET
246
Projected
DET 4.1 — COL 3.8
Actual
DET 6 — COL 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mason Adams R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%93 mph22% whiff
SI27%92 mph6% whiff
CU16%82 mph58% whiff
Framber Valdez L
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI45%94 mph8% whiff
CU29%78 mph29% whiff
CH19%89 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
77°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.994 Total: 0.993
thin air, 8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.66ERA
4.25FIP
7.71K/9
4.14BB/9
1.49WHIP
DET
4.21ERA
4.60FIP
8.43K/9
4.28BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
2.1 runs
38.4% win
DET F5
2.4 runs
45.3% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
55.9%
YRFI
44.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Sean Sullivan SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Freeland SP15-DAY-IL
Willi Castro 2B10-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
DET8 injured
Keider Montero SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Matt Vierling CF60-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.