BAL vs TOR prediction for September 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 4.3 - BAL 4.0. TOR is favored with a 55.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
TOR
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BAL
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORBAL
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.5% (3,883 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BAL
246
TOR
246
Projected
TOR 4.3 — BAL 4.0
Actual
TOR 4 — BAL 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Chris Bassitt R
BAL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI37%92 mph12% whiff
CU22%71 mph28% whiff
FC19%90 mph20% whiff
Max Scherzer R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%93 mph14% whiff
SL18%86 mph23% whiff
CH16%84 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
67°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.017 Total: 1.008
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
BAL
4.05ERA
3.65FIP
9.22K/9
3.69BB/9
1.32WHIP
TOR
3.41ERA
4.09FIP
8.33K/9
3.87BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BAL F5
2.4 runs
39.6% win
TOR F5
2.6 runs
45.2% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
52.8%
YRFI
47.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.06
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BAL8 injured
Blaze Alexander 3B10-DAY-IL
Gunnar Henderson SSDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Mountcastle 1B60-DAY-IL
Christian Franklin CF10-DAY-IL
Ryan Helsley RP60-DAY-IL
Felix Bautista RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
Cody Ponce SP60-DAY-IL
Patrick Corbin SP60-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.