NYM vs NYY prediction for September 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects NYY 4.8 - NYM 4.2. NYY is favored with a 60.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
NYY
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
NYM
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYNYM
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.8% (3,883 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
NYY
357
Projected
NYY 4.8 — NYM 4.2
Actual
NYY 6 — NYM 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Nolan McLean R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI34%95 mph11% whiff
FF20%96 mph26% whiff
CU14%82 mph35% whiff
Carlos Rodón L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%94 mph21% whiff
SL25%86 mph32% whiff
CH15%85 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
77°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.020 Total: 1.010
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.48ERA
4.26FIP
9.46K/9
3.90BB/9
1.38WHIP
NYY
3.18ERA
4.05FIP
8.39K/9
3.62BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.2 runs
35.6% win
NYY F5
2.8 runs
49.7% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
50.0%
YRFI
50.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYM6 injured
Brett Baty 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
Tylor Megill SP60-DAY-IL
NYY7 injured
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Weathers SP15-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY-IL
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.