FINAL: SEA 4 — TEX 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SEA 3.9 - TEX 4.2 (TEX at 54.5% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
SEA
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
TEX
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEATEX
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TEXSEA W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.7% (3,870 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
246
SEA
246
Projected
SEA 3.9 — TEX 4.2
Actual
SEA 4 — TEX 3
Pick Results
TEX MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%97 mph23% whiff
SL36%91 mph37% whiff
CH13%90 mph46% whiff
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph19% whiff
SL24%87 mph33% whiff
FS14%82 mph40% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
67°F3 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.999 Total: 0.998
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
4.24ERA
4.43FIP
8.44K/9
3.74BB/9
1.32WHIP
SEA
4.06ERA
4.17FIP
8.71K/9
3.35BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
-21.0% EV
-114
F5_ML HOME
-10.7% EV
-125
NRFI NRFI
-9.8% EV
-164
ML HOME
-9.8% EV
-112
ML AWAY
+6.1% EV
+103
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-5.9% EV
+190
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.2 runs
42.8% win
SEA F5
2.1 runs
39.9% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
54.9%
YRFI
45.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.9
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
78%
No HR
6%
Corey Seager TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Joc Pederson TEX30.0%
ISO: 0.246 | Barrel: 14.2% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Cal Raleigh SEA29.4%
ISO: 0.219 | Barrel: 11.1% | vs Jacob deGrom | Park: 0.89x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jacob deGrom
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Logan Gilbert
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Nathan Eovaldi SP15-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Peyton Gray RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Nick Davila RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Brennen Davis CF60-DAY-IL
Colt Emerson SS60-DAY-IL
Emerson Hancock SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Model's 6.1% SEA ML edge (52.3% vs 49.3% market) was correctly calibrated — deGrom's slightly lower 4.28 ERA doesn't offset SEA's home-field, bullpen edge (4.06 vs TEX 4.24 ERA), and cold/suppressive park conditions (0.89 factor, 67°F) that favored the home side; Rodriguez's clutch 7th-inning HR delivered the win as modeled.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality: deGrom 4.28 ERA (B, 29.7% K) vs Gilbert 4.01 ERA (B, 26.5% K) — deGrom's K-rate edge (+3.2pp) offset by marginally higher ERA (+0.27)
- Park factor 0.89 + 67°F + marine layer = run suppression; model total 8.09 conservative, actual came in at 7 runs confirming suppression thesis
- SEA bullpen 4.06 ERA vs TEX 4.24 ERA (0.18 gap) plus home field (+2.5% baseline) pushed model to 52.3% SEA
- Away underdog specific 5-10% edge bucket shows a supportive track record vs broader away-ML historical support a supportive track record
- Actual outcome 4-3 SEA: Rodriguez's 3-run 7th-inning HR was the game-breaker, confirming cold-weather/suppression thesis with late-inning offense breakthrough
Risk Factors
- Small sample in specific edge/prob bucket limits confidence
- deGrom's ongoing health/rehab status is a wildcard for future outings
- If SEA roof were open rather than closed, park factor could shift toward neutral, removing edge
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TEX 54.5%
-5.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-5.9 pts
Total
7.0
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.