FINAL: CWS 0 — PIT 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CWS 4.8 - PIT 4.0 (CWS at 63.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
CWS
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
PIT
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSPIT
-1.5
Run Line (CWS)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PITCWS W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 70.1% (3,870 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
246
CWS
357
Projected
CWS 4.8 — PIT 4.0
Actual
CWS 0 — PIT 2
Pick Results
PIT MLmlWIN+1.38u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jared Jones R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF46%98 mph19% whiff
SL35%90 mph37% whiff
CH12%93 mph39% whiff
Hagen Smith L
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF51%94 mph29% whiff
SL31%83 mph43% whiff
FC15%88 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
72°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.025 Total: 1.012
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
3.59ERA
3.61FIP
9.69K/9
4.22BB/9
1.26WHIP
CWS
4.04ERA
4.40FIP
8.84K/9
4.38BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+20.7% EV
+202
ML HOME
+15.4% EV
-103
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-13.5% EV
-227
F5_ML HOME
+10.9% EV
-110
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-9.0% EV
+101
NRFI NRFI
-7.4% EV
-154
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
1.9 runs
31.4% win
CWS F5
2.8 runs
52.9% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
55.4%
YRFI
44.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
71%
No HR
8%
Oneil Cruz PIT30.0%
ISO: 0.173 | Barrel: 11.7% | vs Hagen Smith | Park: 1.01x
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.304 | Barrel: 15.5% | vs Jared Jones | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS27.1%
ISO: 0.203 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Jared Jones | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jared Jones
0.0 K projected
PIT | K/9: 0.0
Hagen Smith
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PIT5 injured
Isaac Mattson RP15-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
Kirby Yates RP15-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Model's 15.4% CWS ML favorite edge (58.6% vs 50.8% market implied) is justified by Hagen Smith's elite 0.6 ERA (A-stuff, 37.1% K rate) dominating Jared Jones' 4.82 ERA (B-grade, 27.5% K); near-even market odds (-103/-105) badly undervalue this pitcher quality gap, and CWS home field plus Ashcraft's pre-game IL move weakening PIT bullpen depth further tilts the edge.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch FOR CWS: Smith 0.6 ERA (A-stuff, 37.1% K, elite fastball 50.7% mix) vs Jones 4.82 ERA (B-grade, 27.5% K) — ERA gap +4.22, K-rate gap +9.6pp favoring Smith heavily
- CWS bullpen 4.04 ERA vs PIT 3.59 ERA — PIT actually has the better overall bullpen (0.45 ERA edge), tempering the CWS advantage somewhat
- Home field (+2.5% baseline) + neutral weather (71.9°F, park factor 1.0) provide modest additional edge to CWS
- Home-ML combo historical support shows a supportive track record supporting home favorite bets in this edge range, though the specific 15-20% bucket is thin
- Ashcraft's pre-game IL placement (arm discomfort) removes PIT bullpen depth, estimated +0.3 run swing favoring CWS in later innings
Risk Factors
- Smith's 16.1% BB rate is high-variance for an elite K arm; could allow traffic despite dominant stuff
- PIT's superior overall bullpen ERA (3.59 vs 4.04) could neutralize CWS's late-inning edge if game stays close
- Near-even market odds indicate genuine uncertainty; recommend standard 1.0x unit sizing, not amplified
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 63.3%
+20.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+20.7 pts
Total
7.5
+2.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.