FINAL: NYY 10 — COL 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYY 5.3 - COL 4.3 (NYY at 64.3% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.6 total runs.
NYY
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
COL
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYCOL
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
COL L5NYY
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 73.4% (3,870 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
246
NYY
357
Projected
NYY 5.3 — COL 4.3
Actual
NYY 10 — COL 3
Pick Results
COL MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Feltner R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%95 mph11% whiff
SL23%89 mph25% whiff
CH18%85 mph44% whiff
Max Fried L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC22%92 mph27% whiff
SI22%93 mph18% whiff
FF19%95 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
83°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.056 Total: 1.030
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.66ERA
4.25FIP
7.71K/9
4.14BB/9
1.49WHIP
NYY
3.19ERA
4.05FIP
8.39K/9
3.61BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-14.7% EV
-115
ML AWAY
+14.0% EV
+247
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-10.6% EV
-128
TOTAL OVER 8.5
+9.9% EV
+102
F5_ML HOME
-9.6% EV
-294
ML HOME
-8.7% EV
-278
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
2.2 runs
30.2% win
NYY F5
3.3 runs
56.4% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
48.4%
YRFI
51.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.14
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.3
Over 0.5 HR
96%
Over 1.5 HR
84%
No HR
4%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 15.1% | vs Ryan Feltner | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Hunter Goodman COL26.9%
ISO: 0.255 | Barrel: 16.2% | vs Max Fried | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Luis García Jr. NYY26.8%
ISO: 0.121 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Ryan Feltner | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Ryan Feltner
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Max Fried
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Freeland SP15-DAY-IL
Willi Castro 2B10-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY7 injured
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 2B10-DAY-IL
Ryan Weathers SP15-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY-IL
Trent Grisham CF10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
Model's 14% COL ML underdog edge (32.9% vs 28.8% market) is a HIGH_EDGE_WARNING trap — Fried's 2.95 ERA (elite, 23.6% K, 7.9% BB) vastly outclasses Feltner's 6.38 ERA (weak, 16.9% K, 9.8% BB), and Yankee Stadium's 1.1 park factor amplifies the home favorite; market correctly priced NYY at -277 (73.5% implied) vs model's more conservative 67.1%, and this pitching gap fails the common-sense sanity check for a 14% underdog edge.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch: Fried 2.95 ERA (elite) vs Feltner 6.38 ERA (weak) — ERA gap +3.43, K-rate gap +6.7pp, BB-rate gap -1.9pp favoring Fried heavily; this is an ace-vs-#5-starter matchup, not a coin flip
- Park factor 1.1 (Yankee Stadium HR premium) + 83.2°F + 4.9mph wind blowing out = 3-4% run inflation favoring NYY's lineup
- Bullpen gap: NYY 3.19 ERA (elite, closer 2.18) vs COL 4.66 ERA (28th, closer 5.13) — nearly 1.5 ERA gap favors NYY in close/late situations
- historically mixed for 10-15% underdog edge (a supportive track record, n=12) shows historical underperformance vs the 60%+ WR the model's edge claim would require to be profitable
- Calibration ceiling: system's own max_edge_cap is 15pp for ML; this 14% edge sits AT the threshold, triggering built-in overconfidence review
Risk Factors
- HIGH_EDGE_WARNING: 14% underdog edge at -277 odds requires historically unsupported 60%+ WR to profit
- System's own calibration params flag edges near 15pp cap as high-risk
- Live game trending NYY 2-0 early, confirming favorite dominance thesis in real time
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 64.3%
-10.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-10.6 pts
Total
8.5
+9.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.