NYM vs MIA prediction for September 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 4.4 - NYM 4.1. MIA is favored with a 54.0% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
MIA
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
NYM
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIANYM
-1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.3% (3,685 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYM
246
MIA
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Robert Stock R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC31%91 mph21% whiff
FF25%96 mph30% whiff
SI22%94 mph11% whiff
Janson Junk R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%94 mph9% whiff
SL21%86 mph13% whiff
CH18%87 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
84°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.025 Total: 1.012
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
NYM
4.17ERA
4.15FIP
9.51K/9
3.88BB/9
1.34WHIP
MIA
4.21ERA
3.89FIP
9.76K/9
4.30BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYM F5
2.3 runs
37.2% win
MIA F5
2.7 runs
47.2% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
51.6%
YRFI
48.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.07
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYM5 injured
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
Tylor Megill SP60-DAY-IL
MIA8 injured
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
Xavier Edwards 2B10-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.