STL vs SF prediction for September 10, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.5 - STL 4.2. STL is favored with a 57.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
SF
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
STL
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFSTL
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.6% (3,685 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
246
SF
245
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andre Pallante R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%95 mph12% whiff
SL29%88 mph30% whiff
KC18%78 mph28% whiff
Blade Tidwell R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST35%82 mph31% whiff
FF31%95 mph17% whiff
SI17%93 mph9% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
85°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.017 Total: 1.007
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.42ERA
4.24FIP
8.16K/9
4.07BB/9
1.34WHIP
SF
4.78ERA
4.57FIP
7.21K/9
4.40BB/9
1.51WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.3 runs
46.9% win
SF F5
1.9 runs
35.4% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
56.7%
YRFI
43.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL6 injured
Peter Strzelecki RP15-DAY-IL
JJ Wetherholt 2B10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
SF8 injured
Victor Bericoto LF10-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
JT Brubaker RP15-DAY-IL
Jesus Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
Keaton Winn RP60-DAY-IL
Adrian Houser SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
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Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.