FINAL: COL 1 — CLE 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected COL 7.8 - CLE 8.2 (CLE at 51.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 16.0 total runs.
COL
7.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
CLE
8.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLCLE
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CLE W4COL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.5% (3,472 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
6810
COL
6810
Projected
COL 7.8 — CLE 8.2
Actual
COL 1 — CLE 9
Pick Results
CLE @ COL YRFInrfiWIN+0.39u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC25%86 mph29% whiff
FF23%94 mph14% whiff
SI23%93 mph14% whiff
Gabriel Hughes R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF55%92 mph15% whiff
SL11%86 mph23% whiff
CU10%79 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
93°F14 mph wind
HR: 1.086 Total: 1.041
thin air, 9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.57ERA
3.87FIP
9.95K/9
3.93BB/9
1.27WHIP
COL
4.82ERA
4.30FIP
7.53K/9
3.84BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 10.5
-27.6% EV
-108
F5 OVER 5.5
+22.4% EV
-122
TOTAL OVER 10.5
+18.1% EV
-112
F5_ML AWAY
-8.9% EV
-145
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-7.4% EV
+100
ML AWAY
-6.5% EV
-145
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
4.8 runs
47.7% win
COL F5
4.5 runs
43.1% win
F5 Total
9.2
NRFI
40.4%
YRFI
59.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.64
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.9
Over 0.5 HR
98%
Over 1.5 HR
89%
No HR
2%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tanner Bibee
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Gabriel Hughes
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE4 injured
Slade Cecconi SP15-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
Colin Holderman RPDAY-TO-DAY
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
COL8 injured
Tyler Freeman RF10-DAY-IL
Kyle Freeland SPDAY-TO-DAY
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Goodman C10-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Coors Field's 1.18 park factor combined with 92.7°F heat and mediocre starters (Gordon 5.99 ERA, Cantillo 4.1 ERA) creates a legitimate run-environment edge that the 10.5 market total under-prices — this is a park/weather-driven edge rather than a model artifact, distinguishing it from the away-underdog ML traps elsewhere on the slate.
Key Factors
- Coors Field park factor 1.18 adds roughly 1.8 runs versus a neutral park
- Temperature 92.7°F and density altitude 3640 ft add another 0.5-0.7 runs via reduced air density
- Both starters are well below average: Gordon 5.99 ERA (C stuff) and Cantillo 4.1 ERA (B stuff) — no elite pitching to suppress scoring
- Model projects 14.86 total runs (60.9% prob OVER 10.5) vs market implying 50% — a 10.9pp gap
- F5 total also shows a big signal: 8.57 F5 runs (64.9% prob OVER 5.5), though this market is calibration-disabled
Risk Factors
- 13.9% edge sits close to the historically worst-performing high-edge bucket (37-a supportive track record) — treat with caution despite the fundamental support
- Total market broadly is calibration-BLOCKED (a supportive track record, -1.8u trailing) — historical support confirms only YELLOW/neutral, not GREEN
- CLE missing Hoskins and Freeman (both 10-day IL, back) trims road-team offensive upside by an estimated half-run
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 51.0%
-1.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-1.7 pts
Total
10.5
+18.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.