COL vs SF prediction for August 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.6 - COL 3.4. SF is favored with a 53.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
SF
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
COL
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFCOL
-1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.1% (3,277 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
135
SF
246
Projected
SF 3.6 — COL 3.4
Actual
SF 2 — COL 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Michael Lorenzen R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH20%85 mph29% whiff
SI20%93 mph9% whiff
FF18%94 mph8% whiff
Logan Webb R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI30%92 mph9% whiff
CH25%86 mph28% whiff
ST19%84 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
60°F13 mph wind
HR: 1.069 Total: 1.040
13mph out
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.94ERA
4.35FIP
7.59K/9
3.91BB/9
1.50WHIP
SF
4.67ERA
4.69FIP
7.13K/9
4.57BB/9
1.48WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
1.6 runs
32.4% win
SF F5
2.1 runs
46.7% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
64.6%
YRFI
35.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.68
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Karros 3B7-DAY IL
Tyler Freeman RF10-DAY-IL
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Willy Adames SSDAY-TO-DAY
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Matt Chapman 3B60-DAY-IL
Trevor McDonald SP60-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.