COL vs SF prediction for August 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.0 - COL 3.0. SF is favored with a 51.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.0 total runs.
SF
3.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
COL
3.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFCOL
-1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
135
SF
135
Projected
SF 3.0 — COL 3.0
Actual
SF 7 — COL 13
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gabriel Hughes R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF57%92 mph15% whiff
SL11%86 mph23% whiff
CU10%78 mph31% whiff
Blade Tidwell R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST38%83 mph38% whiff
FF34%96 mph18% whiff
SI13%94 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
65°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.067 Total: 1.039
11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.96ERA
4.35FIP
7.55K/9
3.89BB/9
1.50WHIP
SF
4.66ERA
4.63FIP
7.26K/9
4.60BB/9
1.48WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
1.4 runs
34.2% win
SF F5
1.7 runs
42.9% win
F5 Total
3.1
NRFI
61.5%
YRFI
38.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Karros 3B7-DAY IL
Tyler Freeman RF10-DAY-IL
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Willy Adames SSDAY-TO-DAY
Logan Webb SPDAY-TO-DAY
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Matt Chapman 3B60-DAY-IL
Trevor McDonald SP60-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.