NYY vs TOR prediction for August 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 2.2 - NYY 3.3. NYY is favored with a 58.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 6.5. Model projects 5.6 total runs.
TOR
2.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 6.5
NYY
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORNYY
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
6.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.5% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
135
TOR
024
Projected
TOR 2.2 — NYY 3.3
Actual
TOR 3 — NYY 4
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Weathers L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH25%86 mph35% whiff
FF24%96 mph17% whiff
ST20%81 mph36% whiff
Dylan Cease R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%97 mph24% whiff
SL30%89 mph42% whiff
CH11%82 mph51% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
75°F11 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.011 Total: 1.004
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.10ERA
3.95FIP
8.53K/9
3.61BB/9
1.22WHIP
TOR
3.75ERA
4.20FIP
8.10K/9
3.81BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
1.6 runs
43.9% win
TOR F5
1.1 runs
30.6% win
F5 Total
2.8
NRFI
70.4%
YRFI
29.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.52
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
NYY6 injured
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
TOR8 injured
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B7-DAY IL
Spencer Arrighetti SP15-DAY-IL
Brendon Little RPPATERNITY
Jake Bloss SP60-DAY-IL
Lenyn Sosa 2B60-DAY-IL
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.