BOS vs PIT prediction for August 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects PIT 3.5 - BOS 4.2. BOS is favored with a 53.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
PIT
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
BOS
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
PITBOS
+1.5
Run Line (PIT)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
246
PIT
245
Projected
PIT 3.5 — BOS 4.2
Actual
PIT 8 — BOS 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Patrick Sandoval L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL29%87 mph24% whiff
CH25%84 mph34% whiff
FF22%94 mph13% whiff
Lake Bachar R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF29%95 mph16% whiff
SL24%90 mph38% whiff
ST17%86 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
PNC Park
80°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.074 Total: 1.039
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.36ERA
3.50FIP
9.61K/9
3.08BB/9
1.23WHIP
PIT
3.50ERA
3.64FIP
9.87K/9
4.17BB/9
1.26WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.3 runs
46.0% win
PIT F5
2.0 runs
36.8% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
57.8%
YRFI
42.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Justin Slaten RP15-DAY-IL
Masataka Yoshida DH10-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B60-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Garrett Whitlock RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
PIT7 injured
Nick Gonzales 3BDAY-TO-DAY
Yohan Ramirez RPPATERNITY
Oneil Cruz CF60-DAY-IL
Endy Rodriguez C10-DAY-IL
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.