SD vs CLE prediction for August 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CLE 4.3 - SD 4.2. CLE is favored with a 51.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.5 total runs.
CLE
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
SD
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
CLESD
+1.5
Run Line (CLE)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
246
CLE
246
Projected
CLE 4.3 — SD 4.2
Actual
CLE 0 — SD 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Casey Mize R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%94 mph21% whiff
SL26%88 mph24% whiff
FS24%88 mph32% whiff
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC25%86 mph30% whiff
SI23%93 mph15% whiff
FF22%94 mph13% whiff
Weather Impact
Progressive Field
80°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.041 Total: 1.020
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.17ERA
3.65FIP
9.64K/9
3.71BB/9
1.22WHIP
CLE
3.64ERA
3.90FIP
9.88K/9
3.95BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
2.1 runs
38.5% win
CLE F5
2.4 runs
44.7% win
F5 Total
4.5
NRFI
61.8%
YRFI
38.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.79
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CLE3 injured
Colin Holderman RPDAY-TO-DAY
Slade Cecconi SP15-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.