FINAL: MIN 5 — PHI 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIN 4.2 - PHI 3.5 (MIN at 55.6% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 7.8 total runs.
MIN
4.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
PHI
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINPHI
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
PHIMIN L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
245
MIN
246
Projected
MIN 4.2 — PHI 3.5
Actual
MIN 5 — PHI 7
Pick Results
PHI @ MIN NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Painter R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF33%96 mph10% whiff
SL20%88 mph37% whiff
ST14%83 mph23% whiff
Dean Kremer R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FS28%83 mph38% whiff
FF25%93 mph13% whiff
FC16%87 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
74°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.071 Total: 1.038
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.35ERA
3.79FIP
10.39K/9
3.58BB/9
1.35WHIP
MIN
4.04ERA
3.85FIP
9.18K/9
3.91BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.5
-19.2% EV
-105
F5_ML AWAY
-18.0% EV
-112
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-14.2% EV
+146
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
+9.6% EV
-115
F5 UNDER 5.5
+8.4% EV
-147
F5_ML HOME
+7.0% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
1.8 runs
32.5% win
MIN F5
2.5 runs
49.3% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
55.3%
YRFI
44.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.92
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
54%
No HR
16%
Kyle Schwarber PHI30.0%
ISO: 0.300 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Dean Kremer | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Byron Buxton MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.321 | Barrel: 16.0% | vs Andrew Painter | Park: 0.99x
Kody Clemens MIN27.0%
ISO: 0.232 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Andrew Painter | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Andrew Painter
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Dean Kremer
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI7 injured
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Trea Turner SSDAY-TO-DAY
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Caleb Kilian RP15-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
+1 more
MIN7 injured
Joe Ryan SP15-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Banda RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 55.6%
+1.6 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+1.6 pts
Total
9.5
+9.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.