CWS vs DET prediction for August 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.3 - CWS 4.9. CWS is favored with a 53.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
DET
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CWS
4.9
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETCWS
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.8% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
357
DET
246
Projected
DET 4.3 — CWS 4.9
Actual
DET 5 — CWS 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Sean Burke R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%95 mph22% whiff
KC20%80 mph26% whiff
SL17%87 mph32% whiff
Drew Anderson R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph18% whiff
CH31%90 mph35% whiff
CU23%80 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
83°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.065 Total: 1.034
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
3.79ERA
4.14FIP
9.05K/9
4.52BB/9
1.34WHIP
DET
4.31ERA
4.56FIP
8.31K/9
4.34BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.6 runs
44.3% win
DET F5
2.5 runs
40.3% win
F5 Total
5.1
NRFI
52.2%
YRFI
47.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.04
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
DET8 injured
James Outman CF7-DAY IL
Riley Greene LF10-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Brant Hurter RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.