MIA vs CIN prediction for August 16, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CIN 4.7 - MIA 4.3. CIN is favored with a 54.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
CIN
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIA
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
CINMIA
+1.5
Run Line (CIN)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 60.0% (3,320 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
CIN
357
Projected
CIN 4.7 — MIA 4.3
Actual
CIN 1 — MIA 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Eury Pérez R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%98 mph20% whiff
SI16%98 mph16% whiff
SL15%88 mph40% whiff
Nick Lodolo L
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%94 mph17% whiff
SI26%94 mph9% whiff
CU25%82 mph39% whiff
Weather Impact
Great American Ball Park
84°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.061 Total: 1.032
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
4.08ERA
3.88FIP
9.77K/9
4.12BB/9
1.25WHIP
CIN
4.41ERA
4.83FIP
8.83K/9
4.73BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.2 runs
35.9% win
CIN F5
2.8 runs
48.8% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
53.0%
YRFI
47.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.99
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIA8 injured
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP15-DAY-IL
Kyle Stowers 1B10-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CIN6 injured
Tony Santillan RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF60-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.