COL vs STL prediction for August 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.0 - COL 3.7. STL is favored with a 53.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
STL
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
COL
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLCOL
-1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (3,199 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
246
STL
246
Projected
STL 4.0 — COL 3.7
Actual
STL 3 — COL 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Freeland L
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF25%92 mph11% whiff
FC22%88 mph19% whiff
KC20%82 mph33% whiff
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%94 mph12% whiff
SL24%86 mph35% whiff
CU16%80 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
88°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.059 Total: 1.031
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.93ERA
4.29FIP
7.62K/9
3.87BB/9
1.49WHIP
STL
4.35ERA
4.34FIP
8.07K/9
4.22BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
2.0 runs
36.9% win
STL F5
2.3 runs
46.3% win
F5 Total
4.3
NRFI
58.2%
YRFI
41.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Jeff Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Blas Castano RP15-DAY-IL
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL2 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
The model's 4.8% edge on COL ML doesn't hold up against Freeland's poor 7.35 ERA and COL's weaker bullpen - this looks like model noise rather than real value, especially in historical support that's been RED historically.
Key Factors
- Freeland (away, COL) has a rough 7.35 ERA vs Liberatore (home, STL) 5.37 ERA - both below average, but STL clearly the better arm here
- Model still shows a 4.8% ML edge favoring the COL dog despite Freeland's ERA disadvantage - suspicious given away-ML is historically weak overall (a supportive track record, n=105)
- F5 UNDER edge (11.7%) and NRFI edge (7.3%, just shy of our 8% threshold) offer cleaner alternate angles than the ML market
- Both bullpens are mediocre (STL 4.35 ERA, COL 4.93 ERA - COL's is the worst of the two)
Risk Factors
- Backing a road dog with the worse starter (7.35 ERA) AND worse bullpen (4.93 ERA) in a historically RED away-ML historical support is a low-quality combination even with a modest edge
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.